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As a "science guy" who is trying learn more about climate and weather variations here at my new home in Panama, I am watching the weather and looking for patterns, as well as researching the climate and weather of Panama online. I will post periodic updates (shorter than this introductory post) if people are interested. 

There was much more rainfall here during the five years that Lloyd Cripe's weather station was online before I moved here in 2012.  I am now almost halfway through my fourth year living in Boquete, and all of those years have been much drier than the previous five years, and that dry pattern is confirmed by my conversations with locals who are aware of weather patterns. 

2015 started out very slowly, but in June, we caught up in rainfall totals with at least the past two years. And then, a couple of weeks ago, the wet season-type thunderstorms and rains stopped.  For now, we are back in a winter-like Bajareque pattern with moisture for our typical rainy-season thunderstorms not making it up from the Pacific Ocean.

The earth is currently experiencing a "moderate" El Niño, and conditions in the equatorial Pacific are approaching a state that will likely lead to a strong to very strong El Niño.  This will affect global weather even more strongly, and may be responsible for the high number and intensity of intense rainfall events this spring and summer, and the current heat waves around the world, as well as our change in weather here. 

There is a high probability of drought in Central America during a strong El Niño, and this could affect the levels in Lake Gatun and water availability for operating the Panama Canal, which depends on water flowing down from the lake towards the Caribbean and the Pacific Ocean to operate the locks. 

From a June 10, 2015 article at CentralAmericaData.com:

An article on Nacion.com reports that the director of Agricultural Extension of the Ministry of Agriculture of Costa Rica, Felipe Arguedas said "... We are very concerned because two years of drought are joined together; we believe that 2015 will be worse than 1997, which was the driest year recorded so far."

The below map (LINK) shows expected effects of the current El Niño.

One characteristic of a strong El Niño is increased easterly trade winds in the Caribbean, which means northerlies (winds from the north) for us since Panama bends to run west to east.  We currently are getting brisk northerlies coming over the mountains here (the Talamanca between Boquete and Bocas del Toro).  They are stronger than normal for this time of year, and they are pushing towards the Pacific Ocean - and putting a damper on our beneficial thunderstorms and heavy rains.  Here's a map of the current winds at about 4,000 foot elevation.

 

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  • This discussion has degenerated into postings of the bogus "an ice age is coming" meme, so I will close it. 

    I will attempt to answer any intelligent questions about that subject of increased solar "activity" on the new discussion I just opened, although I expect a lot of denialist claptrap and misinformation to be posted there as well.  . 

  • If a long term term development is interrupted by a short term phenomenon what does it prove or change. This is research in its early stages that has not been subjected to peer review.but you better hope millions don 't die and billions don't suffer if this happens. Making a point In an argument you lost years ago seems kind of small.
    • Bjorn , I have had an epiphany, a revelation. If the odds are four to one that you are right, but the results of the downside are catastrophic
      Would a prudent risk management program demand taking preventative measures now? My fear is that that these European scientists have discovered something and there is no solution.
    • Bjorn, it is not unusual for people not to realize or accept when they have lost, but, the world has moved on and you still live in a previous unsupported factual realm. You grasp at an unproven, un reviewed theory to try to win a point. If there is a possibility that this Mini-ice age concept is true we will all have to focus on survival and move on from these outdated arguments. We better demand immediate response for review and demand preparation if there is a minimal possibility. It is not a game anymore.
      • yup, your opinion....only time will tell..give it 30-40  years and 'they' will (probably)  know, unfortunately most of us will never know....you do know, that even the old Greeks thought they were in the know...

    • 1/2 cup baking soda + 1 tbs. Vinegar
    • I have not lost an argument....wheres the proof of me losing the argument?...its all opinions...anybody can have an opinion, and they do...we all do....they are just different opinions....even the so called scientists have different opinions...we are just wasting CO2 yapping about it.....

      • Should I trust your opinion or the climate scientists? No brainer. They are not "so called scientists". That is their field of education- unlike yours.

        The facts are in. Most of the deniers will never change their minds. End of story.
        • ok, just so you know I DO have education, in a couple of fields...the 'so called scientists" , I call them because they DO NOT agree...there is no consensus..only Al Gore and his friends say so...most of deniers may never change their moinds, neither does the opposing side...sooo?

          • Whoop de freakin do- Bjorn is educated. But unfortunately misinformed. Au contraire señor- it's not just Al Gore and his "friends". If you are aware of Google you will find 97% of climate scientists are in agreement.
            Unfortunately many of those of your kind are indoctrinated beyond help. Good luck in your denial. It must be a barrel of fun to try and defend the undefendable.
            Please proof read your posts so you you may come across as a tad more legitimate.

            I would suggest you bow out politely and spend your time and energy reeducatiing yourself.
            When I'm wrong I'm not too proud to admit it.

            When you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.
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