The real reason it is raining so much right now

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Tropical Depression Sixteen Forms in the Caribbean Sea; May Become Rare Thanksgiving Hurricane

   

November 21, 2016

Tropical Depression Sixteen has formed in the southwest Caribbean Sea and may become a rare Thanksgiving hurricane before dousing parts of Central America with flooding rainfall in the coming days.

(MORE: Hurricane Central)

The center of Tropical Depression Sixteen was located about 300 miles east of the Nicaraguan Caribbean coast.


Current Storm Status

Tropical Depression Sixteen will move very little the next several days. Late this week, high pressure will build to its north, and the clockwise steering flow around that high will send this system westward towards the coast of Nicaragua or Costa Rica.


Projected Path

Currently, wind shear is keeping somewhat of a lid on intensification.

However, later this week, wind shear is expected to relax, and the tropical cyclone is expected to become a rare, late-season hurricane before making landfall in Nicaragua or Costa Rica.


Current Satellite, Wind Shear

It will be a concern for Central America, however, including Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. This region will be at risk for heavy rain capable of causing flooding and mudslides. 

In addition, areas of heavy rain well to the north of the circulation may trigger flooding in parts of Honduras and Belize. 


Forecast Rainfall

Any wind and storm surge impact will depend on the strength of the system as it moves inland, which remains uncertain at this time.

The future "Otto" is expected to weaken rapidly soon after making landfall, as the circulation is ripped apart by the higher terrain of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

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