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Unusually heavy rain for November...

As many of you know, I have a degree in conservation and ecology, and follow weather patterns with great interest.  I have also been studying climate in recent years, especially with respect to anthropogenic global warming an climate change.  (AGW.CC)

I hang out and participate daily using the handle 'Xulonn" at the Weather Underground tropical weather and climate change blogs of meteorologist Dr. Jeff Masters and his co-blogger Bob Henson (LINK), and climate scientist Dr. Ricky Rood (LINK). Ricky is a former NASA climate modelling expert, and currently a professor at the University of Michigan where he teaches climate problem solving.   

Informed people like to know the qualifications and credibility of a person in a subject that they are writing about - especially when it is controversial, which is why I wrote the above mini-bio.  You can see that I have a solid science perspective to help with my writing about climate and weather - but I certainly am not a professional level weather and climate expert.  

After that lengthy introduction, I just wanted to say that based on the data at Palmira resident Lloyd Cripe's WU/PWS (Weather Underground Personal Weather Station) (LINK) this is the wettest November since his put the station up in 2007, and November rainfall just passed the 21.22 inches that fell during the flood year of 2008.  As I am writing this post in late afternoon, we are again having heavy rain as in the past several days.  Yesterday, we got over 4 inches, and we are already over 4 inches with the rain falling at a rate of 3.8" per hour - the heaviest I have seen in my nearly four years here..  

At this time of year, we expect to be transitioning into the dry season.  The Bajareque wind and mist/drizzle from the north would be beginning, and rainfall amounts would be light.  Coffee growers have started their harvest season, and one fifth generation Alto Quiel coffee grower told me that is is too wet to pick right now.   

I have been charting Lloyd's Palmira station data on monthly rainfall and cumulative annual rainfall, and the below figures are from those chart.  A few weeks ago, I expected that 2015 would end up with even less rainfall than last year, but now we have passed last year's total with six weeks to go in 2015.  I have been looking at satellite images,the global wind map, and synoptic "surface charts" on the internet and cannot see what is influencing our current pattern of very heavy daily rainstorms.  (I have not looked at rainfall data for the whole of Panama - Just our region.)  

I hope to talk to Lloyd Cripe soon, and get his take on the current weather pattern.  

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Note the huge spike in November rainfall on the bar chart for this year...

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Note that we have passed the 2014 total rainfall already this year.  

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Replies

  • The heavy rains suddenly stopped a couple of days ago, and the condensation on the glass-door of the commercial refrigerator at my rental casa dried up. (That's my rain forecasting device). 

    Then the Bajareque winds suddenly started up and are blowing day and night here in lower Volcancito. (Will I ever escape references to volcanoes?) 

    It will be interesting to see if we cycle back and forth to a few more rainy days - but don't expect any "predictions" from me!  Either way, it appears that we finished the wet season with a nice burst of heavy rainstorms - which should help us get through the dry season. 

  • This is my unsolicited opinion. I would compare the criminal 2008 economic meltdown with climate change in that the post 2008 crash has resulted in a very weak recovery after seven years. The economic future is a crapshoot. Not the normal business cycle.
    So the economic deck chairs have been rearranged.

    I see any future climate predictions the same way- other than the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases. With climate change the rules and predicatabilities gleaned from previous records and computer models, in my opinion are not as valuable predictors as they once were.

    The climate is so complex there really is no way to predict with any accuracy many of the results of a warming planet. A couple of degrees may not seem like much, but in the big scheme of things it could be huge. Then add another few degrees...

    One thing we can be certain of is evaporation will continue to increase, along with all the devastation that will result from that single phenomena.
  • Thank you for posting the data. I know this year is strange here, but at the moment happy for the rain.

    While your data is based on your extended knowledge and I respect that and I am listening, I miss a dear friend who used to give us his local Rain Report - those who read this will know who I mean.

    Too many tragedies this year - all over the world.

    Saludos
  • If you were here late '90's early 2000's up until present day, you'd see this is just the way it is and there are no "norms" about this place. After a good portion of my life down this way, I will say that there is no norm in the tropics and to follow charts and graphs is silly, as just 200 metres that way (pick a direction) weather patterns are different. We don't get true summer until Jan and even then like clock work, it rains at the Boquete fair. We go through cycles. El Nino, La Nina. Dry or wet winters and dry or wet summers. We also get veranitos in winter and a week or so of dry. (Veranito de San Juan por ejemplo) There is no norm for Boquete. Newcomers certainly can not make an informed opinion on the matter as they have not hunkered down and experienced WET and MISERABLE winters like in late 90's and early 2000's, especially 2008 and 2011! Nosotros si sabemos! Ask a local. They'll tell you- dating all the way back to '60's or so, from whom I have spoken to. I can remember being blessed with gorgeous summers, no rain and blue blue sky... and being cursed with hardly any summer and mostly rain. I can also remember winters that flooded us out of our stables, (we had to evac horses) flooded our homes and we bailed for many days, all over our properties. (locals) Raining 40 days and 40 nights- so to speak. Again, normal here. Oct/Nov is extremely wet, for the most part. This is why the Fer-de-Lances coincide their breeding and neonates emerging and becoming active to exactly November, when the frogs and other prey animals will be the most plentiful to sustain them and see them to growth/development and able to survive a hot summer. Yes, people- it's Tropical Pit Viper month! They get a few more months of rain and time of plenty. Do not be surprised if it rains clear in to Dec and even in to January and Bajareque clear in to Feb. Now you see why we have an indoor arena. This heavy rainfall has nothing to do with El Nino, a phenomenon, distortion in weather patterns, or anomalies... and everything to do with Boquete. That's how she is. Fickle. After all, you're in the mountains. And, if you were here back in the day, you'd remember temps dropping to parka weather. Then they rose and heated us up... now they're back down again. It's been cold!

    • Thanks for comment from a longtime resident who is close to nature - is that you, Jess?  

      Indeed there are no easily discernible "normals" here in climate and weather here - and certainly little easily accessible weather and climate data - except for Panama Canal related issues where rainfall is critical to the canal's operation.  Unlike first world countries, Panama does not have an extensive public-accessible network of data from calibrated weather stations - except for the hydro-power people big agro-business farmers.  River rafting companies typically pay for access to the hydro-power companies online river and weather info.   

      Lloyd's nine years of data at one location - Palmira Arriba is hardly enough for good science, where 30 years is the normal minimum for sufficient climate data to begin looking for patterns.  

      Global warming and climate change will cause major changes in the world's weather, based on it's effect on polar and marginal desert regions.  I considered AGW/CC likely effects before moving here four years ago.  The best that science can do for Panama is to suggest that many tropical rainforest regions between 10S and 10N latitude will likely get wetter - and no high confidence on that "prediction."

      The tropical pop-up T-storms I mentioned are notoriously difficult to predict.  However, I do find it interesting that in nine years, November has never been the rainiest month like this year.  You seem resigned to and well adapted to high variability and little predictability in weather patterns.  

      OTOH, I am a retired guy with a strong interest in nature, climate, and weather, and I enjoy studying the situation to see what I can learn.   

      Do me a favor, and look at the above ENSO red and blue El Niño and La Niña graph and see if you recall any of those years as having unusual weather.  I do know that there were heavy rains in Chiriqui Province from Hurricane Mitch during October of 1998 while a strong La Niñ was happening - and that could happen again next year.  (And for Jim Tosch, that is not a "prediction", but rather a possible likelihood to watch for - a guess based on circumstance around an event in the past.  It is entirely unrelated to the sophisticated computer models used byclimate scientists.) 

  • I just understood how to define my perspective: you claim virtually 100 per cent credibility but forecasts fail aproximately forty percent of the time for La niñas. If my percent is off it doesn't matter, why risk your credibility with forecasts
    • I think I am being hood winked. My big question of the season is what effect will theoretically weakening El Niño have on our normally high winds in the latter part of the dry season. Since it choked off hurricanes in the Atlantic could it possibly function similarly here. What's your perspective Mr. Likelyhooder?
    • It makes total sense and is part of my perspective. The language of science does not necessarily match the semantics of common usage. Science suggests a likelihood and the next day the media calls it a forecast or a prediction. A month ago the media announced that on the fifteenth of November the rainy season would end (approx two weeks early). Now look at the results. There is definitely a communication problem and it is used to destroy the credibility of scientists.i definitely agree with you on the likelihood of La Niña I was having fun with the vocabulary. From now on I will refer to you respectfully as a "likelyhooder".
      • Do I have to buy a hoodie with "LIKELY" printed on it?

    • Have seen the chart many times but would be reluctant to have much faith in a sample of three during a time of unpredictability. Remember we were going to get El Niño last year. Remember the blogs that are hanging around affecting weather patterns. As for accuracy and credibility, a lack of accuracy eventually affects your credibility. However, playing with the semantic, if anything in weather or climate ever relied on anything more certain than liklihood there could never be a forecast or a prediction. For this reason, no matter what the word likelihood denoted, it connotes
      A forecast or a prediction. Anyway, this is just for fun. I am anticipating a La Niña but my expectations are muted by the erratic behavior of water temperatures. And, thanks for all the likelihoods.
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